Easy Change

Are we recovering? "Optimists point to the rapid decline in the unemployment rate after the first wave of the pandemic—from nearly 15% in April to 6.7% in November— as a reason for a speedy recovery. Pessimists' go-to statistic is the high and rising rate of the long-term unemployed, those who have been out of work for more than six months. It has risen from 0.7% of the labour force in February to 2.5% today."  -From The Economist - Jan 2, 2021 (America's Jobs Market. Speed Limits) The article recounts the fact that many people who are long-term unemployed have indicated that they are only temporarily laid off, while history and shows that over time, many of these jobs may not come back. Many people have dropped off the rolls altogether and are no longer looking for work. According to Jason Furman and Wilson Powell III of Harvard University, the real unemployment rate is 8.5%.  Within the sectors of knowledge work, there has been a dramatic overnight shift to large nu...

It appears that we have another round of Quantitative Easing in the works. If you've been listening to any of the money shows over the past several months, you'll note that most of the major players were not anticipating that! However, a recent update from the Bernanke indicates that the possibility of Quantitative Easing Round Three (QE3) is a very real one....but not in the near term. This article from International Business Times does a good job of explaining the thought process around a possible QE3 and why the timing is not likely to be now. All that being said, the CPI is up and the price of energy is skyrocketing. It is not an easy thing for people to get to work in cars that are not efficient. However, that is not stopping people from certain segments of the political/media spectrum from announcing dirty secrets about Clean Energy . I find that Google News has a great mix of stories from all over and this story -- the increased energy costs is certainly one to watc...

Just this past week I was on a visit to some family a few hours away and I was pleased at how efficient the trip was. The cost of the fuel to get there was not overly expensive and good planning kept the costs down to something reasonable. Due to space constraints, I opted to get a hotel room for the night but this was planned for in advance. I use the same chain each time to accumulate reward points. However, about half way through the weekend, I noticed that I was getting a cold and felt like I had a sore throat. Cut to a trip to the pharmacy to get a package of cold medicine. Even the store brand, which was on sale, still cost about nine dollars. The costs of these things really are increasing. That is the very reason why I find comments that there is no inflation to be dubious at best. Statistics from the Dept. of Labor when it comes to the Consumer Price Index (CPI) tell a more accurate story than just waving-of-hands types of comments. The CPI shows, in short that there are many...

The funny thing about nearly every decline in a market, whether it is stocks, bonds, or housing is that people are incredibly fixated on calling the bottom. In fact, just this past week, the market came back up over 7000 and there was a bit of hoping going on that the bounce was an indication of the bottom. I get it. I really do get it. But even if you think that you have a good chance of being right...and even if you are right this time and you think you can get out and back in at the right time, (There are many studies that say statistically that you can't do this reliably....) the more practical question for many people is: so what? Most people at this point are over leveraged with debt up to their eyeballs. It is a combination of consumer debt, mortgages, credit lines, and loans for education, cars, or even rehab projects on homes. It doesn't matter what kind of debt it is; the average consumer in America cannot afford to be in the business of calling a bottom. The reason t...

One of my favorite things to do on the weekend if I am not already busy is to watch Consuelo Mack: Wealthtrack on my local PBS station. This show features investment and finance gurus from all different major firms like Merrill Lynch, BlackRock, MorningStar etc. The reason that I really like the show is that it focuses on two very interesting parts of finance. The first is the economy in a macroeconomic view. Too often as personal investors focus on personal finance, they become deeply entrenched in the ideas around debt repayment, debt snowballing, 401ks, IRAs and other types of personal finance. While all of these items are critical to personal finance, there becomes a point where the average person begins to have money to invest. And in order to know where to invest, it is critical (in my opinion), to understand the global economy, particularly at a macroeconomic view. Of course, it is fairly well known that the past is no guarantee for the future, but I am still bullish on personal...