Easy Change

 I attended an interesting presentations given by IShares/Blackrock with the goal of showing how to use their ETF products to capitalize on investing themes for 2021: Gargi Pal Chaudhuri - Head of iShares Markets & Investments Strategy Dorothy Lariviere - iShares Product Consultant iShares (by BlackRock) - 2021 Outlook: New President, COVID-19, and Policy I found that this presentation was quite interesting. The presenters included two women which was a pleasure to see and they were quite intelligent and well-spoken. I don't advocate for any particular investment or forecast, but I thought that the summary was interesting and if you want to review the particular symbols they mention as ways to act on these themes, they are included at the end. US GDP Forecasts Above 6% for 2021 This presentation included a forecast that perhaps is not too shocking, but a positive report that GDP looks to be positive and a substantial number. The drivers for this include the ongoing fiscal and...

Are we recovering? "Optimists point to the rapid decline in the unemployment rate after the first wave of the pandemic—from nearly 15% in April to 6.7% in November— as a reason for a speedy recovery. Pessimists' go-to statistic is the high and rising rate of the long-term unemployed, those who have been out of work for more than six months. It has risen from 0.7% of the labour force in February to 2.5% today."  -From The Economist - Jan 2, 2021 (America's Jobs Market. Speed Limits) The article recounts the fact that many people who are long-term unemployed have indicated that they are only temporarily laid off, while history and shows that over time, many of these jobs may not come back. Many people have dropped off the rolls altogether and are no longer looking for work. According to Jason Furman and Wilson Powell III of Harvard University, the real unemployment rate is 8.5%.  Within the sectors of knowledge work, there has been a dramatic overnight shift to large nu...

 In the book A Random Walk Down Wall Street  author Burton Malkiel argues that the stock market is, as the title suggests, a random walk. In the book, which is cited and echoed by famous industry titans like Jack Bogle of Vanguard fame, it: 1. Makes little sense to think that you can beat the market. Indeed, on average you'll lose money when picking stocks. 2. In looking at when to invest and cash out of stocks, if you try to time the market you'll inevitably do worse.  This advice really stuck with me and I still believe this to be the case. But in the current environment, as many smart people do, I do find myself asking myself if it is different this time. Much of this is due to the performance of "broad market" indices. Diversification is the idea that by spreading your investment over many companies, you lower the volatility. You might have less upside, but you also have less downside risk. In the end, you're hoping the market as a whole does well, more than a...

  The Economist writes on January 16, 2021 that "the pandemic has ushered more robots into factories, warehouses and back offices." and that "they are here to stay." The article cites information surveyed from a variety of manufacturers and shows that the increase is marked for these firms' increase in digital consumer interaction and collaboration along with Artificial Intelligence and automation. So, in short, what does that mean for society and how will that impact investing into the future? Society continues to find new and innovative ways to make our lives better with technology. The amazon effect on retail has translated into the destruction of brick and mortar. Many people are happier with this setup. For advocates of online shopping, they are spending less time doing these errands and more time on hobbies, with family, or able to do other things that they feel are a better use of their time.  Amazon continues to forge ahead with its use of technology, u...