Skip to main content

Forecasting for Retirement: my approach

One of the key factors in my personal finance adventure has been dealing with the concepts of estate planning and also retirement planning. There are various calculators out there for helping you estimate your needs at retirement but I take a somewhat different approach.

My approach is that instead of looking at the amount of money you'll need and saving enough to get you to that goal, I first look at what I am saving and see what it could possibly get me in retirement. Of course all of this is a forecast. Currently I'm forecasting for six percent returns and two and a half percent inflation in this exercise. Then I see what is available when I invest in this way on a monthly basis for the next thirty years and take a four percent distribution divided by twelve as a monthly withdrawl down out of the accounts.

Many people might think that this is the same old thing. But I try to be pragmatic. I will certainly try to stay on track but life throws curveballs. My method lets me check in on what is happening now. And mostly the value for this approach is that I can learn to live with what I will most likely have instead of being a dreamer about what I should have amassed.

The burden is on me. If I make a mistake I have no one to blame but myself. And when I use other calculators like the one on fidelity website, they focus on expenses. But I can't forecast that as accurately as I would like. I would like to think however that the forecasting that I can do is better suited to my situation than he generic forecasting done by large financial firms with a one-size-fits-all approach.

Another major aspect of the approach is that I expect to shift to a buckets of money strategy as I get into my forties and fifties where risk becomes much more of a concern. In short though, I think that the stock market holds real promise. And not despite the fact that there could be a strong retrenchment soon according to noted financial advisor Jonathan Pond, but because of it. That is, the idea of another retrenchment is somewhat exciting as another buying opportunity. In reality, the money in some sense is made in those down markets.

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

On Buying a Lifestyle...with a Fixed-Rate Mortgage

Despite all of the back and forth about sub-prime mortgages and the housing bubble, I am feeling just fine. The reason is that when purchasing, I followed some old advice: Don't expect to flip. In general, I've been told by many people that you shouldn't buy a home unless you plan to hold on to it for 7 years or longer. If the market does well and you decide to sell, fine. But if you want to be sure not to lose money, don't buy something that you only want for a year or two. I've been in my current location for more than 3 years. I like it. And I have no intention of leaving in the short or medium term. It seems to me, that real estate, like any asset class, has its ups and downs. But as a practical point, I don't look at my home as an asset per se. Rather, I consider it to be a fixed expense that I need to survive, much like food and water. Therefore, as long as the payment is reasonable and it functions to keep me warm and sheltered and comfortable, that is a...

Do Better With Your Time

Recently, I've been extremely busy with some work commitments. The interesting thing for me is that this increased work activity has really helped crystallize some of my feelings with regard to time. And these ideas are a critical part about my view on personal finance. I'm curious to know if others feel similarly. Time is money. That is, Time, in some way, contains energy. Money, is also energy. In the act of working, I am able to compound and increase the amount of money that I have. I am exchanging my time and effort and thought which are components of my work, for the productivity that I produce. And this production gets me money from my employer. However, the first dollars that I make each day, week, or month are the most valuable. Then the ones that I make at the end are the most valuable. (Forget about taxes for a minute.) The reason is, the first ones help me have a place to live and food to eat. And the last ones are the ones that I can use to really improve my life lo...

Blogging WealthTrack: Christine Benz (Retire Early? Or not?)

 This morning I've watched an interesting video on Consuelo Mack: WealthTrack. Here, Consuelo's guest, a longtime contributor, Christine Benz, a personal finance expert from Morningstar joined Consuelo for a discussion on issues related to retirement, in particular in the current market environments. This conversation is even more interesting against the backdrop of The Great Resignation. I found Christine's advice to be particularly interesting on a couple of fronts. Her advice in dealing with talking about retirement in general, in particular for people who are in the process of thinking about retiring early gave me pause. She is considering the traditional advice of a 4 percent withdrawal rate to be dangerous and indeed, actually concerning. According to the recent research she cites, a 3% withdrawal rate is a better option. Even more than the four percent rule, I think that her comments on annuities are particularly interesting. While annuities have been given a bad nam...