Skip to main content

Forecasting for Retirement: my approach

One of the key factors in my personal finance adventure has been dealing with the concepts of estate planning and also retirement planning. There are various calculators out there for helping you estimate your needs at retirement but I take a somewhat different approach.

My approach is that instead of looking at the amount of money you'll need and saving enough to get you to that goal, I first look at what I am saving and see what it could possibly get me in retirement. Of course all of this is a forecast. Currently I'm forecasting for six percent returns and two and a half percent inflation in this exercise. Then I see what is available when I invest in this way on a monthly basis for the next thirty years and take a four percent distribution divided by twelve as a monthly withdrawl down out of the accounts.

Many people might think that this is the same old thing. But I try to be pragmatic. I will certainly try to stay on track but life throws curveballs. My method lets me check in on what is happening now. And mostly the value for this approach is that I can learn to live with what I will most likely have instead of being a dreamer about what I should have amassed.

The burden is on me. If I make a mistake I have no one to blame but myself. And when I use other calculators like the one on fidelity website, they focus on expenses. But I can't forecast that as accurately as I would like. I would like to think however that the forecasting that I can do is better suited to my situation than he generic forecasting done by large financial firms with a one-size-fits-all approach.

Another major aspect of the approach is that I expect to shift to a buckets of money strategy as I get into my forties and fifties where risk becomes much more of a concern. In short though, I think that the stock market holds real promise. And not despite the fact that there could be a strong retrenchment soon according to noted financial advisor Jonathan Pond, but because of it. That is, the idea of another retrenchment is somewhat exciting as another buying opportunity. In reality, the money in some sense is made in those down markets.

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

Suze Orman Goes Too Far!

I've been a fan of Suze Orman for years. When I first started working after graduating college and then I started to make some money, my experience with other members of my family, mostly my grandparents, showed me that I needed to figure this money thing out. So, I set out to understand how money works and I found Suze. Many financial gurus are out there and for the most part, much of the advice overlaps, but Suze really seemed to be right along my line of thinking.  I bought the books, watched the show, and despite the fact that I feel like I've largely outgrown it so long as I follow the lessons, I really wanted to check up on how things were going. I went to the CNBC website and found an interview where she said this: "I do really live within my means. I have absolutely no debt. If I don't have the money to write a check, then I can't afford it. I never, ever, ever spend old money, so I'm only allowed by my own standards to buy something new with new mone...

Do Better With Your Time

Recently, I've been extremely busy with some work commitments. The interesting thing for me is that this increased work activity has really helped crystallize some of my feelings with regard to time. And these ideas are a critical part about my view on personal finance. I'm curious to know if others feel similarly. Time is money. That is, Time, in some way, contains energy. Money, is also energy. In the act of working, I am able to compound and increase the amount of money that I have. I am exchanging my time and effort and thought which are components of my work, for the productivity that I produce. And this production gets me money from my employer. However, the first dollars that I make each day, week, or month are the most valuable. Then the ones that I make at the end are the most valuable. (Forget about taxes for a minute.) The reason is, the first ones help me have a place to live and food to eat. And the last ones are the ones that I can use to really improve my life lo...

iPhone as a productivity tool

Finding the right tool to be productive can mean the difference between being average and being a superstar. Although it still feels early, I think that the iPhone is that tool for me. I tried palm pilots and I've played with blackberries. The cost is significant but worth it. It can be very easy to get caught up in the aspects of the phone that make it entertaining. Bringing games and other aspects of computers together really makes it a productivity tool. So I don't know what else to praise it for. But those are not the real reasons I like it. The very text that I'm typing right now is the reason. Becoming adept at the keyboard is a bit of a learning curve. Butit is no different than the palm or the blackberry. And the quick composition of text makes the iPhone an all-star. Now that I have this tool I can always work on something that interests me or even chill out with a game. But more than that, it is all in one. For me that I don't have to carry a separate item li...