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Showing posts from March, 2009

So What If You Can Call The Bottom?

The funny thing about nearly every decline in a market, whether it is stocks, bonds, or housing is that people are incredibly fixated on calling the bottom. In fact, just this past week, the market came back up over 7000 and there was a bit of hoping going on that the bounce was an indication of the bottom. I get it. I really do get it. But even if you think that you have a good chance of being right...and even if you are right this time and you think you can get out and back in at the right time, (There are many studies that say statistically that you can't do this reliably....) the more practical question for many people is: so what? Most people at this point are over leveraged with debt up to their eyeballs. It is a combination of consumer debt, mortgages, credit lines, and loans for education, cars, or even rehab projects on homes. It doesn't matter what kind of debt it is; the average consumer in America cannot afford to be in the business of calling a bottom. The reason t